You are looking at posts that were written in the month of November in the year 2009.
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Posted on November 30th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
I just wanted to add this post as I’m actually excited by what price is showing me and I wanted to document it for future reference. I strongly believe that the market is showing early signs of risk appetite so I’m going to stick my neck out here and make some early price projections.
GBP/USD - Long up to 1.6650 as my first target.
GBP/JPY - Long up to 1.4700 area.
USD/JPY - Long up to 88.50 area.
EUR/USD - Long up to 1.5150 area.
AUD/USD - Long up to 0.9300 and quite possibly make new highs.
I really can see lots of opportunities and the above are just a few. I’m going to try and at least get in one one of them. As soon as I can see a safe entry on any pair I will post it on Twitter. This is Forex and it’s unpredictable so I’m not just going to jump in and hope for the best. I will plan my aproach as and when I see it with my main focus being GBP/USD as it’s my favourite pair.
Watch this space.
James.
Posted on November 28th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
In the last post I said the safest entry point I could see at the time was 1.6665 for a short. I like to back up what I’m saying by taking the trades I talk about so I shorted cable @ 1.6670 as posted on Twitter. Unfortunately for me, I got stopped out for -50 pips for a 1% loss on my account. However, I’ve also been banging on about GBP/USD down to 1.6300. Well the good news is the pair did break 1.6300 yesterday 27th Nov 2009. My charts show price went down to 1.6272.
The area held and price has retraced showing very strong signs of a rebound back up towards 1.7000 again. I’m now bullish on Cable and will look for a buy signal and post it on Twitter if I see it.
James.
Posted on November 24th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
As I posted yesterday I shorted the pair @ 1.6604 and I was targeting 1.6300. Early on I managed to see a 100 pip gain on my trade but noticed price starting to reverse around 7am EST as it usually does so got out for +75 pips. I posted this on Twitter.
At the moment the market looks confused since EUR/USD is bullish yet GBP/USD and AUD/USD appear bearish to me so something is likely to give soon. Since EUR/USD is the only pair showing bullish signs out of the three, my bias still remains bearish on GBP/USD. The safest entry for a short GBP/USD looks to be 1.6665. If I see price there then I could be interested depending on what the other majors are doing at the time.
For now, I’m unable to give a definitive direction so I’ll be on the sidelines until the morning.
Remember all my trades are logged and verified here.
James.
Posted on November 23rd, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
As we often see on a Monday price made a reversal. I have just taken a short trade on the retracement @ 1.6604 based on price action on the 4 hour time frame. I’ve been taking trades lately only for my stops to be hit by literally a few pips and then going the right way so I will not be showing my stop on this trade - I’m sick of the unethical practices that go on in Forex. Putting a stop on is basically showing the market your hand, so I’ll be using a mental stop on this trade. I’ve seen so many occasions whereby my stop has been hunted and then reversed, it’s almost unbelievable when you see it as often as I have.
That’s my rant over.
Where do I think price is going? I have no idea! My educated guess is still down to the 1.6300 area so that’s what I’m targeting.
James.
Posted on November 20th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
It always amazes me how the Forex market can completely change direction so fast! The pair made it as high as 1.6880 and then dropped like a stone. Whilst I was travelling I did take two long trades at the safest areas I could find at the time (1.6800 and 1.6750) and made around a 30 pip loss on both.
Like I said in my previous post “My only concern about this bullish view is that today was very much risk averse and buying of the dollar. So, make sure the majors are selling the dollar before taking GBP/USD long.” This was correct analysis and this bearish trend continued.
The price action is now very bearish and looks like it is trying to make its way down to 1.6300. Often the market reverses on Mondays so I’ll keep an eye on the majors early Monday morning but for now my bias will be short trades down to 1.6300 level.
You can view my trading results here.
James.
Posted on November 17th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
As I mentioned yesterday price action was showing early signs of a GBP selling and as I said I was looking for a break of 1.6810. We got the break and I actually got in on a retracement @ 1.6820. This was only a small position as it was against the bullish trend but I banked 44 pips.
My performance is tracked by an independent website and can be viewed here.
Price came down to hit the previous major resistance area @ 1.6750 which offered support - this is a bullish sign. As I said yesterday I’m still looking for a move up to 1.7000. Unfortunately I’m not going to be available to trade for the next few days as I’m travelling. If I was around to trade then I’d be looking at buying GBP/USD on dips. The ideal buy area is 1.6750 as you could put a tight stop there but price has to move back down to that area as it held already today. Otherwise wait for a good break of 1.6800 to the north and then look for a retracement back down to this area and take a buy around 1.6790 - 1.6800.
My only concern about this bullish view is that today was very much risk averse and buying of the dollar. So, make sure the majors are selling the dollar before taking GBP/USD long.
I’ll be back late Friday so I will update the Blog again then.
James.
Posted on November 16th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
Ok, as expected the pair has moved higher and took out key resistance @ 1.6750 that I talked about previously. I managed to to make some nice pips from this trade as I got in @ 1.6690 and rode it up to Pivot R2 @ 1.6787. Yes, the pair moved even higher but I was happy to make 90 pips.
Now, what’s happening?
The hourly chart is showing me early signs that the pair is looking to be sold off again in the short term. If price breaks 1.6810 to the downside then I will start looking at shorting the pair. My view is however still bullish longer term up to 1.7000 so I’ll look at taking long trades on retracements.
James.
Posted on November 14th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
I’ve decided to start updating this blog again in the hope that people can benefit from my analysis and at the same time get my name out there in the Forex market.
For the next few weeks I’m going to concentrate on GBP/USD pair only.
1.6500 - 1.6550 area held up this week despite price trying to break this area multiple times and to me this is a bullish sign. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.6690. I expect to see 1.6750 hit at the beginning of the week. This area will then be key to watch because if we can break that area and then stay above it, I can see the pair moving up to 1.7000 which was hit back in August.
Since Forex is very unpredictable I will update this information as and when I feel it’s necessary.
I’ll be back to update my Blog on Monday 16th November.
James Alliss.