Forex Market - Dec 10th 2009

Posted on December 11th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.

I had a very annoying day today as my USD/JPY trade was working out very nicely with some +50 pips showing on my live account. I brought the stop to breakeven. Then, 08:30 EST my stop was hit by a spike created by the US news.

The worst part about this was the fact that the market literally hit my stop to the pip and is was 50 pips away and none of the other currency pairs even moved. Then, to add insult to injury, the pair retraced immediately! It was almost like the market just wanted to take me out.

I’m not joking when I say I have seen my stop hit so many times to the pip and then retrace. No matter where I place my stop the market very often seems to gravitate towards it, take it out and then reverse. It’s almost unbelievable when you see it and how often it happens so I try my best not to use hard stops.

Looking at the pair now I still see it higher but I’m not getting back in unless I can see a safe entry.

Moving on to my favourite pair GBP/USD, it would seem that today was a confused day; the market really doesn’t know what to do so neither do I. I can not see any good trade setups at the moment so I suspect that will be me done for this week.

Liquidity is drying up as the big boys take vacation so I’m going to have to take care trading and perhaps stop altogether for December.

If I see anything worth trading then I’ll mention it here.

James.

Want to trade my signals COMPLETELY FREE?

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Forex Market - Dec 9th 2009

Posted on December 10th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.

GBP/USD broke 1.6250 early this morning and held at 1.6166. I couldn’t get a safe entry on the pair so didn’t trade it. However, I’ve been waiting for USD/JPY to hit key support @ 87.50 and today we saw it. I’ve taken a long trade USD/JPY @ 87.86 for a number of reasons.

1) The Daily Chart is showing a 50% retracement level based on the most recent high and low swing points.

2) We have hit the 4 hour 50 SMA

3) 87.50 has acted as support previously

4) Pivot point S2 was hit

I am not disclosing my stop here but I’m targeting a move back up towards 90.50. Will price get there? I don’t have a clue but I’m aiming for 1:2 risk reward on the trade. If I lose then so be it, that’s trading and the most I will lose is 2%.

I’ll sit back and see how this plays out.

James.

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Forex Market - Dec 8th 2009

Posted on December 8th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.

I’ve had a busy couple of days so didn’t manage to update the Blog. Friday saw a very strong NFP result causing a huge surge in USD buying.

I decided to short GBP/JPY @ 147.00 prior to the release as I liked the huge amount of resistance at this level. Despite the GBP falling through the floor, the Yen crosses took a shot at the moon causing my GBP/JPY trade to rise instead of fall.

I had to endure around 220 pips of drawdown on Friday but was confident that the trade had solid foundations so kept the position open over the weekend. Immediately on Monday the pair took a dive back down as I’d hoped and today I closed it for a profit of +309 pips.

GBP/USD has reached a key support level @ 1.6250 and rebounded. Whether this rebound has legs or whether it’s coming back down I don’t know yet. The overall trend is clearly down so I will be looking at short trades. My optimal entry level for a short trade is 1.6550 but lets see what the market shows.

AUTO TRADE all my trades for FREE by clicking here.

James.

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Forex Market - Dec 3rd 2009

Posted on December 3rd, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.

As posted yesterday I felt that risk appetite was coming to end, at least short term anyway and I shorted GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. I took +120 pips from GBP/USD but GBP/JPY gained strength because of the Yen weakness.

The projections I made on Nov 30th were as follows:

GBP/USD - Long up to 1.6650 as my first target.
GBP/JPY - Long up to 147.00 area.
USD/JPY - Long up to 88.50 area.
EUR/USD - Long up to 1.5150 area.
AUD/USD - Long up to 0.9300 and quite possibly make new highs.

Today price hit the following levels on each pair:

GBP/USD – 1.6719
GBP/JPY – 146.83
USD/JPY – 88.46
EUR/USD – 1.5141
AUD/USD – 0.9319

I don’t know anyone that can make projections as accurate as that. I really hope you can appreciate that I do have a good understanding of price action. To be honest, I made some silly mistakes this week and saw lots of trades that I didn’t take.

Yesterday I also said “I particularly like the look of USD/JPY long because the yen reached a new high and looks ready to turn over with the help of the Bank of Japan intervention.” What happened today? USD/JPY moved upwards for the entire day but I couldn’t see a safe entry.

Not to worry, I’ve made money which is the main thing and that’s me finished for the week. Tomorrow is NFP Friday so I’m staying out of the market.

You can AUTO TRADE my signals for FREE by following this link.

James.

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Forex Market - Dec 2nd 2009

Posted on December 2nd, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.

I want to keep this post short.

I’m seeing signs of risk appetite coming to an end in the short term. I have therefore continued to short Sterling by selling GBP/USD @ 1.6675 and GBP/JPY @ 145.57. I have no set targets in place, I’ll just watch price action and decide when to get out based on what the market shows me.

James.

Track my trading progress by clicking here.

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Forex - Trend Change? UPDATE

Posted on December 1st, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.

WOW! The market did certainly change direction as I thought it would and it did it fast.

As projected in my previous post my first GBP/USD target was 1.6650. Price almost hit my target dead on - the days high was 1.6644. That was a 255 pip move today alone. I took +90 pips on this move and have shorted the pair now looking for a retracement back down before going long again.

All the pairs I mentioned in my previous post have rallied today. The days pip movement for each of the pairs is as follows.

GBP/USD - +255 pips (Average is 140 pips)
GBP/JPY - +258 pips
USD/JPY - +125 pips
EUR/USD - +146 pips
AUD/USD - +165 pips

I don’t mind saying this myself, although it’s a little arogant that was a good call!

I still see all these pairs higher but in the short term I’m looking for retracements and then I’ll try and find safe entries to go long again. I particularly like the look of USD/JPY long because the yen reached a new high and looks ready to turn over with the help of the Bank of Japan intervention.

All my trades are logged here. You can also get real time alerts on Twitter.

James.

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