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Posted on December 10th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
GBP/USD broke 1.6250 early this morning and held at 1.6166. I couldn’t get a safe entry on the pair so didn’t trade it. However, I’ve been waiting for USD/JPY to hit key support @ 87.50 and today we saw it. I’ve taken a long trade USD/JPY @ 87.86 for a number of reasons.
1) The Daily Chart is showing a 50% retracement level based on the most recent high and low swing points.
2) We have hit the 4 hour 50 SMA
3) 87.50 has acted as support previously
4) Pivot point S2 was hit
I am not disclosing my stop here but I’m targeting a move back up towards 90.50. Will price get there? I don’t have a clue but I’m aiming for 1:2 risk reward on the trade. If I lose then so be it, that’s trading and the most I will lose is 2%.
I’ll sit back and see how this plays out.
James.
Posted on December 8th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
I’ve had a busy couple of days so didn’t manage to update the Blog. Friday saw a very strong NFP result causing a huge surge in USD buying.
I decided to short GBP/JPY @ 147.00 prior to the release as I liked the huge amount of resistance at this level. Despite the GBP falling through the floor, the Yen crosses took a shot at the moon causing my GBP/JPY trade to rise instead of fall.
I had to endure around 220 pips of drawdown on Friday but was confident that the trade had solid foundations so kept the position open over the weekend. Immediately on Monday the pair took a dive back down as I’d hoped and today I closed it for a profit of +309 pips.
GBP/USD has reached a key support level @ 1.6250 and rebounded. Whether this rebound has legs or whether it’s coming back down I don’t know yet. The overall trend is clearly down so I will be looking at short trades. My optimal entry level for a short trade is 1.6550 but lets see what the market shows.
AUTO TRADE all my trades for FREE by clicking here.
James.
Posted on December 3rd, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
As posted yesterday I felt that risk appetite was coming to end, at least short term anyway and I shorted GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. I took +120 pips from GBP/USD but GBP/JPY gained strength because of the Yen weakness.
The projections I made on Nov 30th were as follows:
GBP/USD - Long up to 1.6650 as my first target.
GBP/JPY - Long up to 147.00 area.
USD/JPY - Long up to 88.50 area.
EUR/USD - Long up to 1.5150 area.
AUD/USD - Long up to 0.9300 and quite possibly make new highs.
Today price hit the following levels on each pair:
GBP/USD – 1.6719
GBP/JPY – 146.83
USD/JPY – 88.46
EUR/USD – 1.5141
AUD/USD – 0.9319
I don’t know anyone that can make projections as accurate as that. I really hope you can appreciate that I do have a good understanding of price action. To be honest, I made some silly mistakes this week and saw lots of trades that I didn’t take.
Yesterday I also said “I particularly like the look of USD/JPY long because the yen reached a new high and looks ready to turn over with the help of the Bank of Japan intervention.” What happened today? USD/JPY moved upwards for the entire day but I couldn’t see a safe entry.
Not to worry, I’ve made money which is the main thing and that’s me finished for the week. Tomorrow is NFP Friday so I’m staying out of the market.
You can AUTO TRADE my signals for FREE by following this link.
James.
Posted on December 2nd, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
I want to keep this post short.
I’m seeing signs of risk appetite coming to an end in the short term. I have therefore continued to short Sterling by selling GBP/USD @ 1.6675 and GBP/JPY @ 145.57. I have no set targets in place, I’ll just watch price action and decide when to get out based on what the market shows me.
James.
Track my trading progress by clicking here.
Posted on December 1st, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
WOW! The market did certainly change direction as I thought it would and it did it fast.
As projected in my previous post my first GBP/USD target was 1.6650. Price almost hit my target dead on - the days high was 1.6644. That was a 255 pip move today alone. I took +90 pips on this move and have shorted the pair now looking for a retracement back down before going long again.
All the pairs I mentioned in my previous post have rallied today. The days pip movement for each of the pairs is as follows.
GBP/USD - +255 pips (Average is 140 pips)
GBP/JPY - +258 pips
USD/JPY - +125 pips
EUR/USD - +146 pips
AUD/USD - +165 pips
I don’t mind saying this myself, although it’s a little arogant that was a good call!
I still see all these pairs higher but in the short term I’m looking for retracements and then I’ll try and find safe entries to go long again. I particularly like the look of USD/JPY long because the yen reached a new high and looks ready to turn over with the help of the Bank of Japan intervention.
All my trades are logged here. You can also get real time alerts on Twitter.
James.
Posted on November 30th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
I just wanted to add this post as I’m actually excited by what price is showing me and I wanted to document it for future reference. I strongly believe that the market is showing early signs of risk appetite so I’m going to stick my neck out here and make some early price projections.
GBP/USD - Long up to 1.6650 as my first target.
GBP/JPY - Long up to 1.4700 area.
USD/JPY - Long up to 88.50 area.
EUR/USD - Long up to 1.5150 area.
AUD/USD - Long up to 0.9300 and quite possibly make new highs.
I really can see lots of opportunities and the above are just a few. I’m going to try and at least get in one one of them. As soon as I can see a safe entry on any pair I will post it on Twitter. This is Forex and it’s unpredictable so I’m not just going to jump in and hope for the best. I will plan my aproach as and when I see it with my main focus being GBP/USD as it’s my favourite pair.
Watch this space.
James.
Posted on November 28th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
In the last post I said the safest entry point I could see at the time was 1.6665 for a short. I like to back up what I’m saying by taking the trades I talk about so I shorted cable @ 1.6670 as posted on Twitter. Unfortunately for me, I got stopped out for -50 pips for a 1% loss on my account. However, I’ve also been banging on about GBP/USD down to 1.6300. Well the good news is the pair did break 1.6300 yesterday 27th Nov 2009. My charts show price went down to 1.6272.
The area held and price has retraced showing very strong signs of a rebound back up towards 1.7000 again. I’m now bullish on Cable and will look for a buy signal and post it on Twitter if I see it.
James.
Posted on November 24th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
As I posted yesterday I shorted the pair @ 1.6604 and I was targeting 1.6300. Early on I managed to see a 100 pip gain on my trade but noticed price starting to reverse around 7am EST as it usually does so got out for +75 pips. I posted this on Twitter.
At the moment the market looks confused since EUR/USD is bullish yet GBP/USD and AUD/USD appear bearish to me so something is likely to give soon. Since EUR/USD is the only pair showing bullish signs out of the three, my bias still remains bearish on GBP/USD. The safest entry for a short GBP/USD looks to be 1.6665. If I see price there then I could be interested depending on what the other majors are doing at the time.
For now, I’m unable to give a definitive direction so I’ll be on the sidelines until the morning.
Remember all my trades are logged and verified here.
James.
Posted on November 23rd, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
As we often see on a Monday price made a reversal. I have just taken a short trade on the retracement @ 1.6604 based on price action on the 4 hour time frame. I’ve been taking trades lately only for my stops to be hit by literally a few pips and then going the right way so I will not be showing my stop on this trade - I’m sick of the unethical practices that go on in Forex. Putting a stop on is basically showing the market your hand, so I’ll be using a mental stop on this trade. I’ve seen so many occasions whereby my stop has been hunted and then reversed, it’s almost unbelievable when you see it as often as I have.
That’s my rant over.
Where do I think price is going? I have no idea! My educated guess is still down to the 1.6300 area so that’s what I’m targeting.
James.
Posted on November 20th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
It always amazes me how the Forex market can completely change direction so fast! The pair made it as high as 1.6880 and then dropped like a stone. Whilst I was travelling I did take two long trades at the safest areas I could find at the time (1.6800 and 1.6750) and made around a 30 pip loss on both.
Like I said in my previous post “My only concern about this bullish view is that today was very much risk averse and buying of the dollar. So, make sure the majors are selling the dollar before taking GBP/USD long.” This was correct analysis and this bearish trend continued.
The price action is now very bearish and looks like it is trying to make its way down to 1.6300. Often the market reverses on Mondays so I’ll keep an eye on the majors early Monday morning but for now my bias will be short trades down to 1.6300 level.
You can view my trading results here.
James.