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Posted on November 17th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
As I mentioned yesterday price action was showing early signs of a GBP selling and as I said I was looking for a break of 1.6810. We got the break and I actually got in on a retracement @ 1.6820. This was only a small position as it was against the bullish trend but I banked 44 pips.
My performance is tracked by an independent website and can be viewed here.
Price came down to hit the previous major resistance area @ 1.6750 which offered support - this is a bullish sign. As I said yesterday I’m still looking for a move up to 1.7000. Unfortunately I’m not going to be available to trade for the next few days as I’m travelling. If I was around to trade then I’d be looking at buying GBP/USD on dips. The ideal buy area is 1.6750 as you could put a tight stop there but price has to move back down to that area as it held already today. Otherwise wait for a good break of 1.6800 to the north and then look for a retracement back down to this area and take a buy around 1.6790 - 1.6800.
My only concern about this bullish view is that today was very much risk averse and buying of the dollar. So, make sure the majors are selling the dollar before taking GBP/USD long.
I’ll be back late Friday so I will update the Blog again then.
James.
Posted on November 16th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
Ok, as expected the pair has moved higher and took out key resistance @ 1.6750 that I talked about previously. I managed to to make some nice pips from this trade as I got in @ 1.6690 and rode it up to Pivot R2 @ 1.6787. Yes, the pair moved even higher but I was happy to make 90 pips.
Now, what’s happening?
The hourly chart is showing me early signs that the pair is looking to be sold off again in the short term. If price breaks 1.6810 to the downside then I will start looking at shorting the pair. My view is however still bullish longer term up to 1.7000 so I’ll look at taking long trades on retracements.
James.
Posted on November 14th, 2009 by James Alliss.
Categories: Forex.
I’ve decided to start updating this blog again in the hope that people can benefit from my analysis and at the same time get my name out there in the Forex market.
For the next few weeks I’m going to concentrate on GBP/USD pair only.
1.6500 - 1.6550 area held up this week despite price trying to break this area multiple times and to me this is a bullish sign. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.6690. I expect to see 1.6750 hit at the beginning of the week. This area will then be key to watch because if we can break that area and then stay above it, I can see the pair moving up to 1.7000 which was hit back in August.
Since Forex is very unpredictable I will update this information as and when I feel it’s necessary.
I’ll be back to update my Blog on Monday 16th November.
James Alliss.
Posted on March 29th, 2008 by James Alliss.
Categories: Uncategorized.
Hello and welcome to my Blog. I keep meaning to update the Blog more frequently but with a full time job and trading the Forex markets I find it very difficult to do so. However, I’ve got some spare time and wanted to point out something that you may find interesting.
Back near the end of 2006 I wrote two articles. One was titled “Are We Heading For A Recession” and can be found here. The other was “The UK Housing Market Is About To Crash” and can that article can be found here.
Now, at the time almost every person I spoke to said that there was no way the UK property market was about to crash as there were too many people for the number of houses available. I continually disagreed and stuck to my guns by saying there was no way I’d buy a house in the UK because it was like an overpriced stock waiting to collapse.
Now let me ask you a question. It’s now the end of March 2008. What do you think is going to happen to UK Housing?
The mess in America over the sub prime mortgages will, and has already had an impact on our housing market. Anyone remortgaging in the near future is likely to see a sharp rise in repayments. If you haven’t already sold your investment property then you should consider how bad your position would be if house prices fell substantially by 20% or more.
I don’t have a crystal ball and I can’t predict the future but perhaps some more of my friends and family may start listening to what I have to say because so far I’ve been completely right. There is no way I’d be interested in buying a house right now because we’re in for a very rocky ride.
If you bought a house say 10 years a go then I can’t see how a housing market crash would cause you too many problems since you’ve had such a substantial up move. But if you’ve released equity in your home based on recent prices, then you could feel some real pain over the coming year.
Another thing you may want to consider is that the UK is vulnerable to all the same problems that the US has because our banks have been exposed to the same sub prime mortgage debt. In fact, we are more so because our housing bubble is even worse and consumer debt is higher here too.
Here is a final though: Warren Buffet, who is now the richest man in the world said “the best investment anyone can ever make is to pay off their mortgage early”.
James Alliss.
Posted on August 17th, 2007 by James Alliss.
Categories: Uncategorized.
Once again, that time has come where there is a lot of talk about the stock market crashing. I didn’t pay too much attention for the first couple of weeks until I checked my Broker account to find that I had lost a considerable sum of money.
Yesterday I switched all my money out of the stock market and into a bond until I can see real signs of a recovery. I’m not a great fan of moving money around like this as the stock market should be looked at as a long term investment. However, on this occasion I felt it was the right move so I’m on the side lines for now.
I’ll update the Blog when I change my position.
James Alliss.
Posted on March 12th, 2007 by James Alliss.
Categories: Tips.
This Blog entry is aimed at those living in the UK only.
It’s ISA Time!
In a matter of weeks you could have lost out on the potential to shelter £7,000 from the Tax Man.
Many people think an ISA is an investment in itself, it is not! It is a tax-efficient wrapper to hold your investments.
If you buy your ISA from a fund company then you could be limited to only buying investments offered by that company, not to mention hefty fees of around 5% which equates to £350 on £7,000.
Buy a Self Select ISA. This means buying the wrapper from a fund supermarket or a stockbroker and then choosing what you want to buy for it. If you go for a fund supermarket Isa (like I did when I started) you will only be able to buy funds. Your best bet would be to buy your wrapper from a broker so that you can not only hold funds run by any provider but also individual shares, bonds or even cash.
I use Barclays Stock Brokers but there are many more companies to choose from. Just do a search on Google.
I hope you found this useful.
James Alliss.
Posted on January 31st, 2007 by James Alliss.
Categories: News.
On January 26th I said “I believe that if we see the GBP hit $1.9613 and also break through the 50% fibonacci retracement we should expect to see a sharp fall.” It’s now 13:00 GMT 5 days on, the pound has fallen to $1.9510 which happens to be the 61.8% retracement which was my target. I’m now expecting the market to move back upwards unless I can see a solid break through this new resistance area. I’m a happy man as that’s another 100 pip profit, although this was a paper trade whilst I continue to try out a new strategy. That’s 2 trades and two successes with 200 pips in profit! I will update the blog with further developments.
James.
Become a Millionaire
Posted on January 26th, 2007 by James Alliss.
Categories: Tips.
So far we haven’t seen the $2 hit this week despite the fact that everyone including myself though it may do.
It’s now 05:46am GMT and I’ve been up all night doing a night shift for my IT job. I’m looking at todays charts and I believe that if we see the GBP hit $1.9613 and also break through the 50% fibonacci retracement we should expect to see a sharp fall.
I will check this again tonight.
Posted on January 24th, 2007 by James Alliss.
Categories: Tips, News.
Did you notice that the USD reached $1.9914 for one Great British Pound yesterday?
That’s almost $2 for every pound. I have been waiting for the $2 mark to be hit for the last month or so and I feel it could happen very soon. In actual fact, if I see a break of $1.9943 I think the $2 will be hit.
Let’s see what happens.
James.
Posted on December 4th, 2006 by James Alliss.
Categories: Tips.
The Brits are buying up houses all over the world, it seems like we’ve become obsessed with housing no matter where it is or how much it costs. There are two schemes you may want to avoid when buying abroad which I will discuss below.
Reversion Scheme
One option being offered to UK investors wishing to purchase in France is the Viager or reversion scheme. You pay the seller a lump sum of money upfront but don’t get the ownership rights until the seller dies. Up until this time, you get to live in the house but you pay the seller an agreed amount of money on a monthly basis.
The price of the home is fixed using a combination of the market price and mortality tables. This scheme is basically a bet on someone’s life. If the seller dies earlier than expected then you get a cheap house, if they live longer than expected then the house becomes more expensive.
Fractional Ownership Scheme
This scheme works similar to a time share. Instead of one buyer owning 100% of the house, the year is split into segments. Individuals can buy as many of these segments as they require.
The difference to this and a time share is that with a time share you just have access to the property. With the Fractional Ownership scheme you own your share in the property. This ownership may come in the form of a share in a firm that was set up to own the property or something similar. The benefit to all this is that you get to keep any capital gains made when you sell.
The big question is whether you would actually make any money?
Not only are you paying for the segment(s), you also have to pay service charges which can be very expensive. And you can only stay at the house on the time you agreed. You’re also sharing it with many others so it would never feel like your own.
In a nut shell both schemes sound like a waste of time, but it’s your money. I’m just trying to warn you about the pitfalls.
James Alliss.